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European Journal of Preventive Cardiology

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match European Journal of Preventive Cardiology's content profile, based on 13 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.03% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Sex- and age-related cardiac remodelling and its association with risk factors - Results from Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance Imaging in the German National Cohort (NAKO)

Flis, M.; Schuppert, C.; Full, P. M.; Maushagen, J.; Schirrmeister, R. T.; Dörr, M.; Gröschel, J.; Keil, T.; Leitzmann, M.; Lieb, W.; Niedermayer, F.; Steindorf, K.; Reisert, M.; Bamberg, F.; Schulz-Menger, J. E.; Schlett, C. L.; Rospleszcz, S.

2026-04-01 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.03.31.26349814 medRxiv
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Background The postmenopausal period is associated with a more adverse cardiometabolic risk factor profile as well as unfavourable cardiac remodelling patterns. However, it remains unclear whether and how the associations between risk factors and cardiac remodelling differ before and after menopause and in the corresponding age groups in men. Methods We used cross-sectional data from the baseline examination of the population-based German National Cohort (NAKO, age range 19-74 years). Cardiovascular resonance imaging (CMR) was performed on 3T MRI, and morphofunctional data of both ventricles were derived from standard short-axis cine balanced steady-state free precession. Associations between cardiometabolic risk factors and cardiac parameters were evaluated using adjusted multivariable linear regression, stratified by menopausal status in women and age group (<50 / [&ge;]50 years) in men. Results The final sample comprised 20,152 participants (40% women; mean age 47{+/-}12 years) from the NAKO MRI subsample. Cardiometabolic risk factor profiles differed across the stratified groups, with higher systolic blood pressure and less favourable lipid profiles in older participants. Ventricular volumes declined and concentric remodelling increased with age in both sexes, with a steeper age-related pattern observed in women than in men. Higher BMI in women was associated with higher left ventricular concentricity index (LVCI) in postmenopausal than in premenopausal women (0.097 vs. 0.047; p for difference = 0.016). Associations between triglycerides and ventricular volumes were strongest in premenopausal women and significantly stronger than in men younger than 50 years (e.g., right ventricular end-diastolic volume (RVEDV): -0.173 vs. -0.064, p for difference < 0.001). Sleep problems were more strongly associated with cardiac parameters in men, with significant sex differences in older men compared with postmenopausal women (e.g. left ventricular end-diastolic volume (LVEDV): -0.105 vs. 0.043, p for difference = 0.023). Conclusions Less favourable cardiac remodelling observed in postmenopausal women appeared to be associated with a higher burden of cardiometabolic risk factors rather than stronger associations between these risk factors and cardiac structure. Several associations showed sex- and age-specific patterns, including Body Mass Index (BMI), triglyceride levels, and sleep problems. These findings highlight the importance of controlling cardiometabolic risk factors across adulthood, and raising awareness for sex-specific differences.

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The contribution of health behaviours to occupational class inequalities in cardiovascular disease: a longitudinal study of Finnish municipal employees

Pietilainen, O.; Vahasarja, L.; Etholen, A.; Teppo, E.; Boch, J.; Speyer, P.; Jousilahti, P.; Harkko, J.; Lallukka, T.

2026-04-07 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.06.26349958 medRxiv
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Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are more common in lower occupational classes, but the mediating role of health behaviours remains unclear. This study aimed to quantify the extent to which health behaviours mediate the association between occupational class and CVD, evaluate their relative contributions to CVD risk, and assess occupational class differences in the effects of health behaviours. Methods: Municipal employees from Helsinki, aged 40-60 at baseline, were followed from 2000-2002 (response rate 67%) to 2022. CVD events were identified from national registers, including hospitalizations, long-term sickness absence, disability pensions, and mortality. Counterfactual mediation analysis using additive survival regression was used to assess the contribution of health behaviours - excessive alcohol consumption, smoking, unhealthy diet, and insufficient physical activity - to the association of occupational class and CVD. Occupational class differences in the effects of health behaviours were assessed with Cox regression. Results: During follow-up, 50% of participants in the low occupational class and 46% in the high occupational class had a CVD event. All unhealthy behaviours except heavy alcohol use were more common in the low occupational class. Health behaviours explained approximately 40% of the excess risk of CVD when moving from high occupational class to low occupational class. Insufficient physical activity (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.35-1.54) was the strongest predictor of CVD. Unhealthy diet was more strongly associated with CVD in the high occupational class. Conclusion: Health behaviours explained a part of occupational class inequalities in CVD, but most of the inequality remained unexplained, highlighting broader social determinants.

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Association between sleep quality and left ventricular structure in the Southall and Brent REvisited (SABRE) tri-ethnic study

Ghei, E.; Chaturvedi, N.; Park, C. M.; Hughes, A.; Garfield, V.

2026-04-07 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.07.26349436 medRxiv
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Abstract Background: Poor sleep quality is associated with increased cardiovascular risk, although its relationship with left ventricle (LV) structure is poorly understood and ethnic differences in the relationship between sleep and LV structure have not been studied. We investigated the association between poor sleep quality and LV structure in a tri-ethnic cohort. Methods: A total of 1284 participants were analysed from the Southall and Brent Revisited (SABRE) study (age=49.9{+/-} 6.2y; male 75.9%, Europeans (EU)=615, South Asians (SA)=457, African/African-Caribbean (AC)=212). A composite sleep quality score was calculated, and LV structure was measured using echocardiography. Associations between sleep quality and LV mass indexed to height1.7 (LVMi), relative wall thickness (RWT) and LV end-diastolic volume indexed to height1.7 (LVEDVi) were estimated using multivariable linear regression with adjustment for demographic and lifestyle factors across three models. Analyses were performed in the whole cohort and stratified by ethnicity. Results: Compared with those who reported very good sleep quality, participants with poorer sleep quality had higher LVMi (4.8 (95% CI 1.4; 8.2)g/(m1.7*unit sleep score); p=0.006). When stratifying by ethnicity, the association between sleep quality and LVMi was unconvincing in EU (1.9(-3.5, 7.3)g/(m1.7*unit sleep score); p=0.493), whereas poor sleep was associated with higher LVMi in AC and SA participants (9.1(1.3;16.8)g/(m1.7*unit sleep score); p=0.023 and 5.8(0.5;11.0)g/(m1.7*unit sleep score); p=0.031 respectively). Conclusions: Poor sleep quality is associated with higher LVMi in older African/African-Caribbeans and South Asians, but not in Europeans. This may contribute to cardiovascular risk. Keywords: sleep, left ventricle, hypertrophy, remodelling

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Plasma proteomics improves prediction of recurrent cardiovascular events

Liu, Y.; Foguet, C.; Ben-Eghan, C.; Persyn, E.; Richards, M.; Wu, Z.; Lambert, S. A.; Butterworth, A. S.; Wood, A.; Di Angelantonio, E.; Inouye, M.; Ritchie, S. C.

2026-04-15 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.14.26350861 medRxiv
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Background and Aims Despite treatment, patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) are at high risk of recurrent events. Existing clinical risk scores for recurrence provide only moderate predictive performance and rely largely on the same conventional risk factors used to predict disease onset. Proteomics is a promising source of new biomarkers but the technologies need focused use cases in order to achieve utility and implementation. We aimed to determine whether plasma proteomics improves prediction of recurrent cardiovascular events beyond established clinical risk models in secondary prevention in a population-scale cohort. Methods Plasma proteomic profiles from ~9,300 participants in the UK Biobank with established ASCVD at baseline were analysed using machine learning methods to derive and evaluate proteomic predictors of recurrent cardiovascular events. The top performing model comprised proteins with non-zero weights (full protein score). Predictive performance of the proteomic predictors, an established clinical risk score (SMART2), and their combination was evaluated across six pre-defined testing datasets representing multiple ethnic and geographic groups. A parsimonious set of proteins with existing clinical-grade enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) available was then derived. Results The full protein score achieved higher performance for recurrent ASCVD than the SMART2 risk score across all ethnic and geographic subgroups (mean C-index 0.743 vs 0.653). Adding the full protein score to SMART2 improved discrimination, with the largest increase in White Irish participants ({Delta}C-index, 0.140; 95% CI, 0.074-0.205; P<0.001). However, adding SMART2 to the protein score provided minimal additional value. The parsimonious score preserved most of the discrimination of the full protein model with C-indices of the recurrent ASCVD risk model comprising age, sex and the parsimonious protein score being nearly identical to the full protein model in the largest testing set (0.723 vs 0.728 for White British in England and Wales). The parsimonious protein score showed a marked gradient of risk with the top, middle and bottom quintiles showing 10-year recurrent ASCVD rates of ~27.4%, ~9.6% and ~2.4%, respectively. Conclusions In patients with established ASCVD, plasma protein measurements substantially improved prediction of recurrent events beyond conventional clinical risk factors, supporting their potential as a complementary tool to guide secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

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Central Adiposity And Infective Endocarditis: A Cohort Study of UK Biobank Participants

Song, W.; Zhang, J.; Zhipeng, W.; Sun, P.; Ke, Z.; Chenzhen, X.; chuanjie, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Li, L.; He, L.; Yu, J.; Lai, Y.; Cui, H.; Ren, C.

2026-04-24 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351534 medRxiv
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Abstract Aims: While traditional anthropometric indices are established cardiovascular predictors, their prognostic value for incident infective endocarditis (IE) remains undefined. Methods: We included 386,859 participants (mean age 57.0 years; 52.9% female) from the UK Biobank between 2006 and 2010 with standardized baseline data on BMI, waist circumference (WC), waist-to-height ratio (WhtR), and the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index.Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models with restricted cubic splines were used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of these indices, adjusting for demographic and clinical risk factors. Results: Over 16.87 median years (25th, 16.02; 75th, 17.60 percentile) of follow-up, there were a total of 1,124 incident IE events. During the follow-up period, 38,342 total deaths were recorded, of which 8,524 were cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related.Overall, compared to individuals with normal weight and baseline metabolic indices, those in the fourth quartile of WC, WHtR, and TyG index exhibited the highest risk of incident IE. Compared to other metabolic indices, WC (HR = 1.53, 95% CI 1.23?1.90,P < 0.001) and WHtR (HR = 1.46, 95% CI 1.20?1.78,P < 0.001) demonstrated higher relative increases in risk associated with IE. Furthermore, the risk of IE was significantly elevated among the younger population with abdominal obesity and concomitant diabetes. However, no significant increase in IE risk was observed among participants with pre-existing valvular heart disease (P = 0.796). Conclusion: Compared with BMI, higher WC and WHtR were robustly associated with increased risk of IE, even after adjusting for traditional risk factors. Furthermore, the risk of IE was markedly elevated among younger individuals with abdominal obesity and diabetes.

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Association of Modified Cardiometabolic Index with Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Syndrome Staging, All-Cause Mortality, and Cardiovascular Mortality: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Qin, Y.; Yan, Y.

2026-03-31 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.03.30.26349722 medRxiv
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Objective: To investigate the association of the modified cardiometabolic index (MCMI) with cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome staging, all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, and compare its predictive performance with traditional indices. Methods: This prospective cohort study included 5,189 adults with CKM syndrome (stages 0-4) from NHANES 1999-2018 (median follow-up 10.4 years). Associations were assessed using polynomial/ordinal logistic regression, Cox models, and restricted cubic splines. Mediation analysis explored diabetes' role. Competing risks (Fine-Gray), E-values, and sensitivity analyses ensured robustness. Predictive performance was compared using C-index and AUC. Results: MCMI showed a "decelerating increase" nonlinear association with CKM staging (adjusted OR=3.90, 95%CI: 3.38-4.50). For all-cause mortality, MCMI>3.5 exhibited a threshold effect (Q4 vs Q1: HR=1.412, 1.046-1.907); RCS curves identified MCMI<3.5 as a safety interval. For cardiovascular mortality, MCMI showed a fluctuating nonlinear pattern with low-risk (3.0-3.5) and high-risk (<2.5 or >4.0) intervals. Diabetes mediated 45.5% of MCMI-cardiovascular mortality risk (total HR=1.374, indirect HR=1.141). Competing risks revealed substantial underestimation of true effects (Q4 vs Q1 sHR=3.25, trend P<0.001). MCMI remained independently associated with all-cause mortality after extensive adjustments (HR=1.22, 1.05-1.40); E-values (1.73/1.29) indicated robustness. MCMI demonstrated superior predictive performance over CMI and TyG (mean AUC difference 0.0243). Conclusions: MCMI is an independent predictor of CKM progression and mortality. Its cardiovascular mortality risk is predominantly mediated by diabetes. MCMI>3.5 may serve as a clinical cut-off, outperforming traditional metabolic indices for CKM risk stratification. Keywords: modified cardiometabolic index, cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome, all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, diabetes mellitus, competing risks model, cohort study, risk prediction

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Association of Obstructive Sleep Apnea With Risk of Myocardial Infarction: A Multivariable Mendelian Randomization and Mediation Analysis

zhang, y.; ZHU, X.; chen, y.; Maimaitimin, A.; Liang, Z.; Maihemutijiang, R.; Nihimaiti, N.

2026-03-31 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.03.29.26349673 medRxiv
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BACKGROUND: Observational studies have suggested an association between obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and myocardial infarction (MI), but whether this relationship is causal or largely reflects shared risk factors remains unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a 2-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to evaluate the causal effect of OSA on MI. Summary statistics for OSA were obtained from FinnGen, and MI data were obtained from the UK Biobank, with external validation using CARDIoGRAMplusC4D. Mediation MR was used to assess 13 potential mediators, and a 6-step multivariable MR framework was applied to estimate the direct effect of OSA after sequential adjustment for potential confounders. Reverse MR was conducted to test possible reverse causality. Genetically predicted OSA liability was associated with increased MI risk (odds ratio [OR] per log-OR increase, 1.0024 [95% CI, 1.0010-1.0039]; P=0.001). Body mass index (BMI) was the strongest mediator, explaining 35.94% of the association (P=0.030), whereas systolic blood pressure (SBP) showed minimal mediation (0.28%; P=0.678). In stepwise multivariable MR, the OSA-MI association was attenuated after adjustment for BMI and SBP (P=0.156), suggesting partial confounding by shared cardiometabolic risk. In a model including SBP and atrial fibrillation (AF), AF remained independently associated with MI (P=0.004), whereas OSA showed only a marginal direct effect (P=0.050). Reverse MR found no evidence that MI influenced OSA risk. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support a causal association between OSA and MI and suggest that this relationship may be mediated in part through obesity-related and arrhythmia-related pathways. AF may represent an important intermediate component of OSA-related cardiovascular risk beyond traditional hemodynamic factors. Keywords: obstructive sleep apnea; myocardial infarction; Mendelian randomization; mediation analysis; obesity.

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Liver Biomarker Improves AHA/ACC 10-year ASCVD Risk Prediction in US and China Cohorts with ML

Peng, T.; Liu, C. l.

2026-04-23 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351466 medRxiv
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Introduction: Accurate stratification of hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk remains challenging despite advances in prevention. Liver function biomarkers (LFBs), particularly gamma - glutamyl transferase (GGT), have been linked to cardiovascular outcomes, yet their contribution to hard ASCVD risk prediction is not well defined. Methods: This study analyzed data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, 2005 - 2018) to assess cross - sectional associations between LFBs and 10 - year hard ASCVD risk estimated by the ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations. Multivariable regression, restricted cubic splines, and mediation analyses were applied to examine independent and dose - response relationships. External validation was performed in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and NHANES using machine learning models (CoxBoost, Naive Bayes and Random Forest). Results: Among 5,731 NHANES participants, GGT showed an independent linear association with hard ASCVD risk (P - trend = 0.003), partly mediated by systolic blood pressure (44.8%), HbA1c (19.0%), and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (13.4%). Machine learning (ML) models incorporating GGT, alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and globulin alongside traditional risk factors improved predictive accuracy, with Naive Bayes achieving an AUC of 0.751 in NHANES validation. Conclusions: GGT is an independent and biologically plausible biomarker of hard ASCVD risk, acting through cardiometabolic pathways. Incorporating LFBs into risk prediction models, particularly with machine learning, enhances risk stratification and may facilitate early identification of high - risk individuals.

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ECG abnormalities are strongly associated with CVD outcomes in low-risk individuals using the PREVENT risk equation

Alawad, M. J.; Soliman, E. Z.; Brown, T. M.; Akinyelure, O. P.; Quezada-Pinedo, H.; Mostafa, M. A.; Satish, M.; Goyal, P.; Soroka, O.; Safford, M. M.

2026-03-31 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.03.28.26349408 medRxiv
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Background: Resting electrocardiogram (ECG) is not currently recommended as part of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment, although accumulating evidence suggests a potential role. Objective: To examine the association between ECG abnormalities and incident CVD events as assessed by the 2023 Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events (PREVENT) equations. Design: Secondary data analysis from the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) prospective cohort, including study participants without a baseline CVD. Exposure: ECG abnormalities were classified by Minnesota Code (MC) as normal, any minor, or major abnormality at baseline (2003-2007). Outcome: Participants were followed for expert adjudicated incident CVD events through December 31, 2021. Results: Among 19,173 participants (mean age at baseline of 63.7 years; 57.8% were female). According to the PREVENT risk equations, 39.4% were classified as <7.5% 10-year risk CVD risk, 44.6% as 7.5-20% risk, and 16.0% as >20% risk. Overall, 47.0% had normal ECG, 44.0% had any minor abnormality, and 9.0% had any major abnormality. During follow-up, CVD events occurred in 12.4% of participants with normal ECG, 17.0% of those with any minor abnormality, and 25.4% of those with any major abnormality. Compared to those without ECG abnormality, the adjusted HR for incident CVD were 1.19 (95% CI 1.10-1.29) for any minor abnormality, and 1.53 (1.36-1.72) for any major ECG abnormality. In the <7.5% risk group, 43.6% had at least one ECG abnormality; in this risk group compared to those without ECG abnormality, the HR for incident CVD associated with any major ECG abnormality, present in 5.0% of the <7.5% risk group, was 1.87 (95% CI 1.34-2.62), The HR for any minor ECG abnormalities, present in 38.6% was 1.13 ( 95% CI 0.93 - 1.37). Conclusion: ECG abnormalities were associated with risk of CVD events across PREVENT risk groups. A substantial proportion of low-risk participants (according to the PREVENT equation) had ECG abnormalities and associated elevated risk. This supports the potential for using ECG to identify a subgroup of low-risk patients who may benefit from more aggressive primary prevention especially with major ECG abnormalities. Addition of electrocardiographic evaluation to the PREVENT risk equations may improves cardiovascular risk discrimination.

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Association of coronary artery bypass with cognitive impairment in coronary artery disease across APO (ε) genotypes in AllofUS

Hariharan, P.; Bagheri, M.; Asamoah, E.; Voiculescu, I.; Singh, P.; Machipisa, T.; Pottinger, T.; Opekun, A.

2026-04-17 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.12.26350734 medRxiv
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STRUCTERED ABSTRACTO_ST_ABSBACKGROUNDC_ST_ABSCoronary artery bypass graft (CABG) is a widely performed procedure for coronary artery disease (CAD), yet its association with Impaired Cognition (IC), i.e., mild-cognitive impairment or all-cause dementia, while accounting for APO ({varepsilon}) genotype, remains unclear. METHODSWe analyzed AllofUS participants with CAD (Age[&ge;]60 yrs) from 2017-2023. We defined CAD as a history of angina/myocardial infarction/chronic ischemic heart disease or having percutaneous coronary intervention/CABG, and IC as mild cognitive impairment or all-cause dementia using ICD/SNOMED codes. We performed logistic regression analyses to assess the association between CABG and IC, adjusting for clinical factors (age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, depression, stroke, smoking, alcohol use, statin/antihypertensive/antidiabetic use), social determinants (self-reported race/ethnicity, income, employment), and APO ({varepsilon}) genotypes. We further performed stratified analyses across APO ({varepsilon}) genotypes ({varepsilon}2/{varepsilon}2, {varepsilon}2/{varepsilon}3 {varepsilon}3/{varepsilon}3, {varepsilon}2/{varepsilon}4, {varepsilon}3/{varepsilon}4, {varepsilon}4/{varepsilon}4). We defined significance at p [&le;] 0.05. RESULTSWe included 22,349 with CAD and identified 908 with IC after CAD till 2023. 40% were females, 70% were White, 12% were Black, and 9% were Hispanic. The proportion of IC was higher (5.1% vs 3.5%, p=1e-08) in CABG (n=8,135) vs non-CABG (n=14,214). After adjusting for clinical factors, social determinants, and APO ({varepsilon}) genotypes, CABG (1.23;1.06-1.41, p = 0.005) was associated with IC. In APO ({varepsilon}) stratified analysis, the association of CABG with IC was strongest in the APO {varepsilon}2/{varepsilon}3 group (1.91;1.21-3.02, p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONIn the AllofUS cohort, we observed an association between CABG and IC in CAD participants, with the strongest association in the APO {varepsilon}2/{varepsilon}3 group. Key MessageO_ST_ABSWhat is already known on this topicC_ST_ABSCoronary artery disease (CAD) and Impaired Cognitive (IC) disease, i.e., mild cognitive impairment and all-cause dementia, share genetic, sociodemographic, and clinical factors, including cardiovascular conditions like coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) procedure. What this study addsWe observed an association between CABG and IC in CAD participants after adjusting for sociodemographic, clinical factors, and APO ({varepsilon}) effects. Further, when CAD participants were stratified across APO ({varepsilon}) groups, CABG was significantly associated with IC in the APO {varepsilon}2/{varepsilon}3 group. How this study might affect research, practice or policyOur observations highlight the role of APO ({varepsilon}) genotype evaluation in CAD patients for IC risk assessment.

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The Impact of Education Level on the Risk of Heart Failure, Acute Myocardial Infarction, and Stroke in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation - a Swedish Nationwide Cohort Study

Sztaniszlav, A.; Bjorkenheim, A.; Magnuson, A.; Edvardsson, N.; Poci, D.

2026-04-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.05.26349791 medRxiv
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Background: Socioeconomic factors impact cardiovascular health. We investigated the association between patient education level and incident heart failure (HF), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and stroke following a first hospitalization with atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods: In this nationwide retrospective cohort study using linked Swedish national registers, we included all patients receiving a diagnosis of AF while hospitalized in Sweden from 1995 through 2008; categorized education level as primary, secondary, or academic; and followed patients for up to five years. Outcomes were first hospitalization for HF, AMI, or stroke. Associations were assessed using sex-stratified Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, calendar year of AF diagnosis, and measures of comorbidity burden (Charlson Comorbidity Index) and thromboembolic risk (CHA2DS2VA score). Results: The cohort comprised 263,172 patients (mean age 72.5 {+/-} 10.4 years; 56.2% male). Compared with primary education, secondary and academic education attainment were associated with lower adjusted risk of HF and AMI in both females and males. For HF, adjusted hazard ratios (HR) were 0.96 (95% CI 0.93 - 1.00) for secondary and 0.82 (95% CI 0.77 - 0.87) for academic education for females and 0.93 (95% CI 0.90 - 0.96) and 0.76 (95% CI 0.72 - 0.80), respectively, for males. For AMI, adjusted HRs were 0.89 (95% CI 0.85 - 0.93) and 0.71 (95% CI 0.65 - 0.78) for females and 0.91 (95% CI 0.87 - 0.94) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.71 - 0.80) for males. For stroke, lower adjusted risk was observed only in the academic education group. Baseline comorbidity burden and thromboembolic risk were higher in lower education groups. Conclusions: Education level was inversely associated with risk of incident HF and AMI over five years, while the association with stroke risk was weaker. Documenting education level may help identify patients at increased risk who could benefit from careful monitoring and optimized preventive care.

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Antecedent autonomic symptoms predict contemporary autonomic symptom burden and reduced health-related quality of life after spontaneous coronary artery dissection

Seeley, M.-C.; Tran, D. X. A.; Marathe, J. A.; Sharma, S.; Wilson, G.; Atkins, S.; Lau, D. H.; Gallagher, C.; Psaltis, P. J.

2026-04-23 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351434 medRxiv
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Introduction: Spontaneous coronary artery dissection (SCAD) is frequently accompanied by persistent symptoms of unknown pathogenesis after the index event. Autonomic dysfunction is a plausible mechanism for these but has not been systematically characterized. We quantified antecedent and contemporary autonomic symptoms in survivors of SCAD and examined their associations with cardiac and extra-cardiac symptoms and health-related quality of life. Methods: This cross-sectional study recruited 227 volunteers from multiple countries with a self-reported history of SCAD. Participants completed validated patient-reported measures, including the Composite Autonomic Symptom Score-31 (COMPASS-31), Anxiety Sensitivity Index-3 (ASI-3), and EuroQol-5 Dimension-5L (EQ-5D-5L). They also completed an internally derived retrospective autonomic predisposition score assessing symptoms during adolescence and early adulthood. Results: Participants were predominantly female (97.8%), median age 53 (47-58) years, and were surveyed a median of 3 (1-5) years after their index SCAD event. 21.6% reported SCAD recurrence. Moderate autonomic symptom burden (COMPASS-31 20) was present in 56.4% and severe burden (40) in 16.3%. History of antecedent autonomic symptoms was the strongest independent predictor of contemporary autonomic symptom burden after adjustment for demographic and clinical covariates (=0.514; P <0.001). Greater autonomic symptom burden independently predicted lower EQ-5D health utility (=0.150; P=0.029) and was associated with the ASI-3 physical concerns (=0.232; P <0.001), but not social concerns domain. Autonomic symptoms were not associated with SCAD recurrence. Conclusion: Symptoms of autonomic dysregulation are common in survivors of SCAD and are associated with reduced quality of life. Their association with antecedent dysautonomic features during adolescence and early adulthood suggests a longstanding predisposition, the significance of which warrants further evaluation.

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Association between Physical Function and Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Pae, B. J.; Li, L.; Wood, K.; Soliman, E. Z.; Chen, L. Y.; Norby, F. L.; Windham, B. G.; Alonso, A.

2026-04-18 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.13.26350644 medRxiv
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Background Poor physical function has been associated with higher cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, the association between physical function and atrial fibrillation (AF) remains understudied. The comprehensive investigation of the association between physical function and incident AF risk could highlight a novel target for AF prevention. Methods A total of 4,803 participants without diagnosed AF from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study cohort with physical function assessed in 2011-2013 were studied. Physical function was measured using Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), 4-meter walk time, and grip strength. Hospital discharge codes and death certificates were used to ascertain incident AF through 2022, and through 2020 for participants from Jackson. Cox regression was used to assess the association between physical function and incident AF risk, adjusting for multiple covariates. Z-score transformations were performed to identify the physical function measure most strongly associated with incident AF risk, and SPPB component analysis was performed to identify the most influential SPPB component. Results Mean age of the study participants was 75.1 {+/-} 5.0 years, with 41.2% being male participants and 22.2% being black participants. During a median follow-up of 9.2 years, there were 809 incident AF events. SPPB (HR: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.90-0.96, per 1-point increase) and grip strength (HR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.78-0.96, per 10kg increase) were inversely associated with incident AF risk, while 4-meter walk time (HR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.03-1.13, per 1-second increase) was positively associated with incident AF risk. SPPB had the strongest association with incident AF risk. Within SPPB, only the chair stand component was significantly associated with incident AF risk. Conclusions The findings suggest that better physical function is associated with reduced incident AF risk, with higher SPPB having the strongest association. Given the modifiable nature of physical function, these findings highlight a potential novel target for AF prevention in aging populations.

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Postnatal signals for later cardiovascular morbidity after preterm pre-eclampsia

Leslie, A.; Maadh, S.; Lee, M.; Jones, O.; Priestner, L.; Duhig, K.; Farrant, J. P.; Hutchings, D. C.; Naish, J. H.; Miller, C. A.; Myers, J.; Ormesher, L.

2026-04-22 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351347 medRxiv
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IntroductionPreterm pre-eclampsia is associated with increased risk of later cardiovascular disease. This study examines cardiometabolic health 3-6 years post-preterm pre-eclampsia and explores whether early postnatal cardiovascular phenotypes relate to later cardiovascular morbidity. MethodsPICk-UP trial participants who experienced preterm pre-eclampsia underwent assessments including anthropometry, blood pressure (BP), arteriography, echocardiography, biomarkers and cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging 3-6 years postpartum. The primary outcome was hypertension prevalence, with secondary outcomes including cardiac fibrosis, remodelling, and function, obesity, and lipid abnormalities. Associations between baseline, pregnancy and postnatal characteristics with the primary and secondary outcomes were explored. ResultsForty-five women were included; 37 underwent echocardiography and 20 had CMR. At 3-6 years, 53% had hypertension, 32% developed de novo hypertension, 30% had adverse left ventricular (LV) remodelling, 49% had diastolic dysfunction, and 27% were obese. Myocardial fibrosis was detected in 35% of CMR participants. No cardiovascular measures changed from 6 months postpartum to 3-6 years. Women who developed hypertension demonstrated higher BP and LV mass index, from 6 weeks postpartum, with distinct postnatal BP trajectories. Women with myocardial fibrosis exhibited higher sFlt and CRP concentrations from 6 weeks postpartum, with sFlt correlating with native T1 at 3-6 years. DiscussionWomen with prior preterm pre-eclampsia show significant cardiometabolic morbidity 3-6 years postpartum. Early postnatal phenotypes indicate long-term cardiovascular risk. Persistent anti-angiogenic imbalance and inflammation may contribute to myocardial fibrosis. Early BP, weight, and biomarker measurement may help identify at-risk women, warranting further studies on optimising postnatal care to mitigate cardiovascular risk after preterm pre-eclampsia.

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Depression Risk With PCSK9 Inhibitors Versus Statins in Hyperlipidemia

Lee, M.-J.; Li, C.-J.; Chang, R.; Lin, Y.-F.; Huang, C.-W.

2026-04-06 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.05.26350195 medRxiv
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Background Hyperlipidemia is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease and is increasingly linked to depression, which is associated with adverse cardiovascular prognosis. As proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors are increasingly used for lipid lowering, their neuropsychiatric safety profile compared with established therapies remains uncertain. Objectives This study aimed to compare the risk of incident depression associated with initiation of PCSK9 inhibitor therapy vs statin therapy among adults with hyperlipidemia. Methods In this population-based cohort study, we emulated a target trial using a new-user active-comparator design and real-world data from the TriNetX research network from July 1, 2020, to June 30, 2025. Adults with hyperlipidemia who newly initiated PCSK9 inhibitors or statins were included. The exposure was initiation of PCSK9 inhibitor therapy versus statin therapy. Propensity score matching was performed, yielding 17,805 patients in each group. The primary outcome was incident depression. Cumulative incidence was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (Cis) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. Results Among 35 610 propensity score-matched patients, the mean age was 65.4 (10.6) years and 46.7% were female. During a mean follow-up of 35.0 (21.2) months, incident depression occurred in 546 patients (3.1%) initiating PCSK9 inhibitors and 981 patients (5.5%) initiating statins. The 5-year cumulative incidence of depression was 5.84% for PCSK9 inhibitor initiators and 7.91% for statin initiators. PCSK9 inhibitor initiation was associated with a lower risk of incident depression (HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.67-0.82), corresponding to a 5-year number needed to treat of 46. The association was observed for major depressive disorder (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.63-0.80) but not for dysthymic disorder or adjustment disorder. Consistent associations were observed across prespecified subgroups and sensitivity analyses, and the lower depression risk associated with PCSK9 inhibitor initiation remained regardless of comparator statin intensity or lipophilicity. Conclusions In this real-world target trial emulation, initiation of PCSK9 inhibitor therapy was associated with a lower risk of incident depression compared with statin therapy among adults with hyperlipidemia. Further prospective studies are warranted to confirm these findings and clarify underlying mechanisms.

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Beyond the TyG Index: Composite Metabolic Metrics Integrating Central Adiposity Improve Atrial Fibrillation Risk Prediction Independent of Genetic Susceptibility

Ke, Z.; Wang, S.; Song, W.; Zhao, S.; He, M.; Ren, C.; Cui, H.; Lai, Y.

2026-04-04 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.02.26350088 medRxiv
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Background: Insulin resistance (IR) and obesity are key drivers of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, the comparative predictive value of the Triglyceride-Glucose (TyG) index versus composite indices combining IR and anthropometric measures such as TyG-BMI, TyG-Waist Circumference (TyG-WC), and Waist-to-Height Ratio (WHtR) remains undefined. We aimed to evaluate these associations and the modifying effect of genetic susceptibility. Methods: We analyzed 293,318 UK Biobank participants free of AF at baseline. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models, and non-linearity was assessed using restricted cubic splines. Incremental predictive value was evaluated via Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI). Interactions with AF Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS) were examined. Results: During follow-up, 22,707 incident AF cases occurred. While the TyG index was associated with AF in unadjusted models, this association was nullified after full adjustment. In contrast, composite indices (TyG-BMI, TyG-WC) and WHtR showed robust, positive associations (WHtR HR per SD: 1.30, 95% CI 1.28-1.32). Spline analysis identified non-linear threshold effects (e.g., WHtR inflection at 0.556). Adding WHtR or TyG-BMI to baseline models significantly improved risk reclassification (NRI ~10.3-11.8%, P<0.001), whereas TyG alone did not (P=0.73). Elevated metabolic risk increased AF incidence across all genetic categories, with significant interactions suggesting greater relative impact in low-genetic risk groups. Conclusions: Composite indices integrating central obesity and insulin resistance are superior to the TyG index alone in predicting incident AF. The identification of specific risk thresholds and genetic interactions highlights "metabolic health" as a crucial, modifiable target for AF prevention.

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Inverse association between dietary fiber intake and asymptomatic intracranial atherosclerotic stenosis in older adults: The YAHABA Study

Yamaguchi, T.; Itabashi, R.; Hirai, E.; Kudo, M.; Akasaka, H.; Ishizuka, N.; Maeda, T.

2026-03-31 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.03.29.26349674 medRxiv
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Background: Intracranial atherosclerosis is a major cause of ischemic stroke. Asymptomatic intracranial atherosclerotic stenosis (ICAS) represents a subclinical and potentially modifiable stage preceding ischemic stroke, yet the nutritional factors associated with asymptomatic ICAS remain poorly defined. This study aimed to identify dietary factors associated with asymptomatic ICAS in community-dwelling older adults. Methods: This cross-sectional, population-based study included 962 Japanese adults aged {greater than or equal to}65 years from the Yahaba Active Aging and Healthy Brain study, conducted in Yahaba town, Japan, between July 2016 and July 2017. Asymptomatic ICAS was defined as {greater than or equal to}50% intracranial arterial stenosis evaluated by magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) without a history of stroke or transient ischemic attack. All participants underwent dietary assessment using a food frequency questionnaire. We examined the association between nutritional factors and ICAS using multivariable logistic regression models with adjustment for age, sex, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, body mass index, smoking, and alcohol use. Results: After exclusions, 850 participants were analyzed. The mean age was 73.4 {plus minus} 6.5 years, and 52% were female. ICAS was identified in 135 participants (15.9%). Participants in the highest quartile of dietary fiber intake had lower odds of ICAS than those in the lowest quartile (OR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.26-0.80). Potassium intake showed a similar inverse association (OR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.27-0.89). When both nutrients were included in the multivariable model as continuous variables, neither remained significant, with moderate collinearity (variance inflation factor, 4.16). Conclusions: Higher dietary fiber intake was inversely associated with asymptomatic ICAS among community-dwelling older Japanese adults. Potassium intake also showed an inverse association, although this relationship was less consistent after accounting for collinearity with dietary fiber.

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Precision Anti-Inflammatory Therapy in Atherosclerosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Colchicine Timing and Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease

Puri, P.; Yadav, H.; Kachhadia, M.

2026-03-30 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.03.25.26348968 medRxiv
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Background: Despite optimal lipid-lowering and antithrombotic therapy, substantial residual cardiovascular risk persists in established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), partly driven by chronic vascular inflammation. Methods: Systematic review and meta-analysis of RCTs comparing colchicine to placebo or no treatment in adults with established ASCVD. Searches on March 21, 2026 (PubMed, Embase, CENTRAL, ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO ICTRP). PROSPERO CRD420261346516. Primary outcome: 4-point MACE (CV death, MI, stroke, urgent revascularization). DerSimonian-Laird random-effects with HKSJ adjustment. Exploratory trial-level meta-regression: time-to-initiation (TTI) and cumulative dose as continuous moderators. Results: DL pooled HR for 4-point MACE: 0.68 (95% CI 0.51-0.89; p=0.0060). HKSJ-adjusted HR: 0.68 (95% CI 0.27-1.70; p=0.3018). Substantial heterogeneity (I2=81.4%; 95% prediction interval 0.29-1.57, crossing 1.0). Exploratory meta-regression: TTI (beta=-0.00187/day, p=0.003) and cumulative dose (beta=-0.00163/mg-day, p=0.0003; k=5, explicitly underpowered). Non-CV mortality: HR 1.07 (0.76-1.50; p=0.694). GI discontinuation: pooled RR 1.95 (1.09-3.48; p=0.024). GRADE certainty: Moderate (4-point MACE). Conclusions: Low-dose colchicine is associated with reduced 4-point MACE in ASCVD (DL HR 0.68; HKSJ HR 0.68). The substantial heterogeneity and wide prediction interval indicate that effect size varies substantially across clinical settings. The divergence between CLEAR SYNERGY (acute; HR 0.99) and sub-acute/chronic trials (HR 0.33-0.77) drives heterogeneity. Meta-regression suggests TTI and cumulative exposure may be key moderators but is underpowered. The non-CV mortality signal is not confirmed. This analysis informs precision anti-inflammatory prescribing in ASCVD.

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The Gut-Vascular Axis in Intracranial Aneurysm Rupture: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Human Microbiome Evidence

Fahim, F.; Hemmati, M.; Heshmaty, S.; Sharvirani, A.; Shahini, A.; Hosseini, A.; Hosseini Marvast, S. M.; Mojtahedzadeh, A.; Konarizadeh, M.; Dorisefat, F.; Maham, N.; Omranisarduiyeh, A.; Oveisi, S.; Fadaei Juibari, F.; Malekipour Kashan, B.; Sharifi, G.; Zali, A.

2026-04-07 neurology 10.64898/2026.04.05.26350207 medRxiv
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Background Intracranial aneurysm rupture is the leading cause of spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage and is associated with substantial mortality and long term neurological disability. Emerging evidence suggests that the gut microbiome may influence vascular inflammation and endothelial integrity through immune and metabolic pathways, yet human evidence linking gut microbial alterations to intracranial aneurysm remains fragmented and inconsistent. Objective This systematic review and meta analysis aimed to synthesize available human evidence on the association between gut microbiome alterations and intracranial aneurysm formation or rupture, with a primary focus on microbial dysbiosis and differences in gut microbial alpha diversity. Methods This study was conducted according to PRISMA 2020 guidelines and the protocol was prospectively registered in PROSPERO (CRD420261360785). A comprehensive search of PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Embase, and Cochrane CENTRAL was performed from database inception until April 1, 2026, with additional screening of grey literature sources. Observational human studies evaluating gut microbiome characteristics in patients with intracranial aneurysm were included. Mendelian randomization (MR) studies investigating genetically predicted microbial taxa and aneurysm outcomes were also reviewed. Random effects meta analysis using standardized mean differences (SMD) was performed for alpha diversity outcomes. MR taxa reported in at least two independent studies were quantitatively synthesized using inverse variance weighting of log odds ratios. Results The systematic search identified 396 records. After removal of duplicates and eligibility screening, 20 studies met inclusion criteria, including 12 observational clinical studies and 8 Mendelian randomization analyses. Meta analysis of three microbiome sequencing studies demonstrated significantly reduced gut microbial alpha diversity in patients with ruptured intracranial aneurysms compared with controls. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of pooled estimates. In addition, MR evidence identified several microbial taxa, including Ruminococcus1, Bilophila, Fusicatenibacter, and Porphyromonadaceae, as potentially protective factors against aneurysm related outcomes. Across observational studies, gut dysbiosis was frequently associated with inflammatory pathways and alterations in microbial metabolites implicated in vascular dysfunction. Conclusion Current human evidence suggests a potential association between gut microbiome dysbiosis and intracranial aneurysm pathophysiology, particularly in relation to aneurysm rupture. Reduced microbial diversity and specific microbial taxa may influence vascular inflammation and aneurysm wall stability. However, existing evidence remains limited and heterogeneous. Large prospective cohorts and mechanistic studies are required to clarify causal relationships and evaluate whether microbiome targeted interventions could contribute to aneurysm risk stratification or prevention strategies.

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GLP-1 Receptor Agonists as a Potential Fifth Pillar of GDMT in HFrEF (NYHA II-IV): A Multicenter Real-World Propensity-Matched Analysis

Yousafzai, O.; Kanwal, K.; Annie, F. H.; Rinehart, S.

2026-04-16 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.13.26350824 medRxiv
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Abstract Background: Despite widespread adoption of contemporary guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT), patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) continue to experience substantial residual morbidity and mortality. Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) have demonstrated cardiometabolic benefits in diabetes and obesity, but their role in HFrEF remains uncertain. Objectives: To evaluate whether the addition of GLP-1RAs to optimized GDMT is associated with improved clinical outcomes in patients with HFrEF (NYHA class II-IV). Methods: We conducted a retrospective, multicenter cohort study using the TriNetX Research Network. Adults ([&ge;]18 years) with HFrEF (LVEF [&le;]40%) receiving GDMT between January 2020 and October 2024 were included. Patients treated with GLP-1RAs were compared with those on GDMT alone. After 1:1 propensity score matching, 1,518 patients were included in each cohort. Outcomes over 2 years included all-cause mortality, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), critical care utilization, and acute kidney failure. Time-to-event analyses were performed using Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox proportional hazards models. Results: In the matched cohort (mean age [~]63 years, [~]33% female), GLP-1RA use was associated with significantly lower all-cause mortality compared with GDMT alone (12.8% vs 23.8%; hazard ratio [HR] 0.48; 95% CI 0.40-0.57; p<0.001), corresponding to an absolute risk reduction of 11.0%. MACE was also reduced (35.8% vs 47.4%; HR 0.64; 95% CI 0.58-0.72; p<0.001). Additionally, GLP-1RA therapy was associated with lower critical care utilization (18.4% vs 28.9%; HR 0.55; 95% CI 0.47-0.64; p<0.001) and reduced acute kidney failure (29.2% vs 37.3%; HR 0.67; 95% CI 0.59-0.76; p<0.001). Rates of pancreatitis and substance-related disorders were low and not significantly different between groups. Conclusions: Among patients with HFrEF receiving contemporary GDMT, adjunctive GLP-1RA therapy was associated with significant reductions in mortality, cardiovascular events, and healthcare utilization. These findings support the potential role of GLP-1RAs as a novel, mechanism-complementary therapy in HFrEF. Prospective randomized trials are needed to confirm these observations and determine whether GLP-1RAs should be incorporated as a fifth pillar of GDMT.